Judith Curry on Taylor’s “Fat Tails” Argument for CO2 Pricing

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- June 5, 2019 2 Comments

“Weitzman’s fat tail, with 10% chance of climate sensitivities out beyond 10C are circa 2007 (AR5); these extreme values have been pretty much debunked by the AR5 (not to mention Nic Lewis’ recent work…. Jerry Taylor’s argument for a carbon tax doesn’t really hold up.” (Judith Curry, below)

In her May 2015 piece, “What Would It Take to Convince You About Global Warming?,” Judith Curry tackles the “fat tails” argument for pricing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. She also considers Jerry Taylor’s argument for his conversion. (Taylor said: “… as each rebuttal was issued to Weitzman, they were just shredded. And then Litterman comes along and marries that analysis to the financial markets…. So my position fundamentally switched at that point.”))

Curry works from the IPCC consensus to question fat-tails as a basis for policy activism.

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On the Falsity of Climate Consensus: Judith Curry’s March 29, 2017, Testimony

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- April 3, 2017 6 Comments

I realized that the premature consensus on human-caused climate change was harming scientific progress because of the questions that don’t get asked and the investigations that aren’t made. We therefore lack the kinds of information to more broadly understand climate variability and societal vulnerabilities.”

Scientists who demonize their opponents are behaving in a way that is antithetical to the scientific process. These are the tactics of enforcing a premature theory for political purposes.”

Let’s make scientific debate about climate change great again.”

“Groupthink” … “sausage making” … “bullying” … “substantial uncertainties” … “premature consensus” … These terms were used by the scholarly Judith Curry in her important, the-future-will-note Congressional testimony last week against the neo-Malthusian, nature-is-optimal natural-science community.

And what has she endured by leaving the “consensus”? Among other things, she has been labeled “serial climate disinformer” … “anti-science” … “denier.” It happened with Julian Simon regarding resource exhaustion and the ‘population bomb’ in the 1970s and 1980s; and it is repeated by the same crowd (with new faces) in the current era against skeptics of climate alarm.

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Mitigation Math: Is Climate Activism Futile? (Judith Curry thinks so)

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- March 27, 2017 5 Comments

“[T]here is growing evidence of much smaller climate sensitivity to CO2; and even if these drastic emissions reductions occurred, we see little impact on the climate in the 21st century (even if you believe the climate models).”

It seems rather futile to make token emissions reductions at substantial cost. Deciding that all this is impractical or infeasible seems like a rational response to me.”

– Judith Curry, “A Roadmap for Meeting Paris Emissions Reduction Goals.” Climate Etc., March 25, 2017.

Numerous posts at MasterResource have summarized the thinking of climate scientist and straight shooter Judith Curry. Bravely, and with intellectual vigor, she has personified the adage: “One plus the truth equals a majority.”

Curry has not only documented the fact that estimations of climate sensitivity to the enhanced greenhouse effect have been coming down, and tie-in’s of climate forcing and extreme weather events remain unproven.

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Judith Curry’s Climategate ‘Open Letter’ Revisited

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- December 7, 2015 1 Comment

“What has been noticeably absent so far in the ClimateGate discussion is a public reaffirmation by climate researchers of our basic research values: the rigors of the scientific method (including reproducibility), research integrity and ethics, open minds, and critical thinking. Under no circumstances should we ever sacrifice any of these values; the CRU emails, however, appear to violate them.”

This item at Judith Curry’s website caught my eye. She recounts the “crazy days of Thanksgiving 2009 when I spent all weekend writing my ‘Open Letter'” in the wake of Climategate.

Six years later, in the middle of COP 21, it is time to give voice to Curry’s contribution, which was reproduced by Andrew Revkin at Dot Earth at the time under the title, “A Climate Scientist Who Engages Skeptics” (November 27, 2009).

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The Brave Judith Curry (Part II)

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- August 25, 2015 10 Comments Continue Reading

The Brave Judith Curry (one plus the truth equals a majority)

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- May 6, 2015 14 Comments Continue Reading

Judith Curry vs. Climate Alarmism (Jon and Jerry–are you listening?)

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- April 16, 2015 6 Comments Continue Reading

Scientific Communication: Preach or Engage? (Judith Curry vs. AGU climate bias)

By Chip Knappenberger -- December 16, 2011 7 Comments Continue Reading

Judith Curry Looks for Middle Ground in the Contentious Climate Debate (Jerry North, can you help her?)

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- August 27, 2010 4 Comments Continue Reading

Climate Science and Climate Policy Debate (clarification & apology to Andrew Dessler)

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- October 15, 2019 1 Comment Continue Reading