Ethan Tan on social media shared the findings of a recent, neglected study on how China’s wind and solar push is more bark than bite. “China has a lot of renewable, zero emission power gen capacity,” he writes. “But they are mainly located too far to matter.”
He quotes from “Why Wind and Solar Power is Going to ‘Waste’ in China in the Global Energy Crisis” (South China Morning Post), which summarized a study (paywall) from Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
The “wasted” wind and solar energy stems from inflexible grid management that continues to position coal as a stabilising source of power and stymies a clean energy expansion that could otherwise generate electricity equivalent to the needs of France, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) think tank.
By the end of March, renewable energy accounted for 60.4 per cent of China’s total installed capacity and accounted for about 37 per cent of actual power generation in the first quarter, according to Xinhua.”
“So,” Tan continues, quoting from the article:
Data from the National Energy Administration in April revealed that in the first quarter, China’s electricity consumption rose by 5.2 per cent year on year. This increase of about 120 terawatt-hours in power demand could have been “comfortably” covered by China’s record-breaking increase in solar and wind capacity, which is capable of generating an extra 160TWh compared to the same period last year, according to CREA.
“This potential clean energy supply,” Tan notes, “could have reached 170TWh if nuclear and hydropower were also included, with the potential clean energy supply exceeding ‘the total power generation of France over the same period’.”
But despite the capacity increase, the actual increase in clean power generation was just 60TWh, with wind generation showing “almost no growth” despite a 23 per cent rise in wind capacity and a 33 per cent rise in solar capacity compared to the first quarter of 2025. This was due to a drop in the capacity factor of solar and wind power – or the electricity output per unit of installed capacity – which led to wasted renewable energy and a growth in fossil fuel-based power generation.
The key reason for ‘wasted’ wind and solar generation was the inflexible management of coal power plants and power grids, not a lack of grid infrastructure,” CREA said.
Coal-fired power generation is largely operated via medium- and long-term contracts to supply fixed amounts of electricity at fixed prices, meaning there is no incentive for adjustments in output to make space for solar and wind.
China, already losing money on its wind and solar buildout, evidently has a tiger by the tail with transmission capacity to get solar and wind from nowhere to somewhere.