“The China study highlights that the government’s push to promote EVs may actually create a greater hurdle for it achieving its goal of restricting CO2 growth.”
Yesterday’s post noted That Tesla’s federal tax subsidies, which apply to the first 200,000 vehicles produced, could be reached and exceeded next year. In such an event, what happens to Tesla’s Model 3 backlog when price-sensitive EV buyers, who have ordered the car, realize it may be delivered without the tax subsidy?
The answer might be seen in the EU, where EV tax subsidies have been cut, leading to a sharp fall in sales. This recently occurred in Hong Kong, as I described last week. But other countries have put EV subsidies, and thus EV sales, on the bubble.
Norway’s EV Effort–But Oil Rises
Critics of EV studies such as that of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF) point to the recent history of oil consumption in Norway, one of the leading EV success stories.
…“Given Tesla’s multiple business lines – leading edge EVs, auto financing, solar roof tiles, battery storage projects, and tunnel boring – more investors lump the company in with technology companies, meaning investors focus on the ‘dream’ rather than the results.”
“In 2016, the global motor vehicle population of cars and trucks was estimated at 1.4 billion, but just 2 million of them are EVs, or a 0.0014% market share.”
After spending three months as the world’s most valuable auto manufacturer, Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA-Nasdaq) share price has fallen due to perceived problems with its business model. Tesla reported its second quarter shipments at the end of June, results that were not as robust as many investors had hoped (being at the low end of management’s guidance).
As the quarter ended, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted details about the timing of production and delivery for the new Model 3 units, the company’s electric vehicle (EV) targeting the mass market.
…“The most obvious function that people overlook when criticizing speculators is their ability to head off shortages”
— Andrew Beattie, “Market Speculators: More Help Than Harm,” Investopedia.com
Imagine a recessionary market for housing or land where no one is selling, a periodic event here in California. At such times, a group of speculators is always ready, willing, and able to buy in this thin or virtually nonexistent market.
The situation is similar during water droughts (which occur in four of five years on average), when few if any farmers or cities want to sell water at wholesale.
Nonetheless, economist Matthew Fienup of California Lutheran University proclaims that the first so-called groundwater “market” has been established in the agricultural groundwater basin of the Oxnard Plain in Ventura County (“How California Got Its First Groundwater Market,” Water Deeply, June 27, 2017).
…