“Perhaps the most serious flaw in [The Population Bomb (1968)] was that it was much too optimistic about the future…. Signs of potential collapse, environmental and political, seem to be growing.” – Paul and Anne Ehrlich, Betrayal of Science and Reason (1996).
“Very sad news. Paul was a friend and a hero. He will be greatly missed.” – Professor Michael E. Mann, X
When it comes to the climate debate, Paul R. Ehrlich joins Climategate as a major reason to reject alarmism. And who other than Michael “Climategate” Mann praised Paul “False Alarm” Ehrlich.
The Sierra Club and other mainstream environmental groups could not muster the courage to RIP one of their own. The New York Times obituary had to focus on the famous false alarms. But not Michael Mann. Ehrlich and Mann are two peas in the neo-Malthusian pod.
Letter-to-the-Editor Exchange
Regarding the look-back at Paul Ehrlich’s predictions, I challenged this published letter-to-the-editor as follows (WSJ, March 14, 2026).
Jason L. Riley overstates his premise in “Paul Ehrlich Was Always Wrong, Never in Doubt” (Upward Mobility, March 18). Ehrlich and his wife Anne (who helped write his 1968 book, “The Population Bomb”) later regretted the use of theoretical scenarios to illustrate their view of the future. Even though they included in the book the warning that “we can be sure that none of them will come true as stated,” the scenarios became tools of critics. Their book may be wrong on some issues, but it is hard to dispute that the earth has finite natural resources, limited human carrying capacity and that excessive growth has
resulted in environmental destruction.
I responded with this (submitted, not published) letter:
Professor Thomas J. Straka’s defense of Paul Ehrlich (LTE, March 24) falls short. Ehrlich never waffled on his doom scenarios despite his throw-away line, “we can be sure that none of them will come true as stated.” In a 2018 interview, Ehrlich proclaimed that societal collapse in the next few decades was a “near certainty.” In his 1996 book, Ehrlich doubled down: “Perhaps the most serious flaw in [The Population Bomb (1968)] was that it was much too optimistic about the future…. Signs of potential collapse, environmental and political, seem to be growing.”
Straka’s statement that “it is hard to dispute that the earth has finite natural resources, limited carrying capacity and that excessive growth has resulted in environmental destruction” neglects that human ingenuity, the ultimate resource,. has reversed the so-called limits to growth. The two-thirds improvement in U.S. air quality since the early 1970s speaks to what Julian Simon stated in his final public lecture in 1997: “more people, greater wealth, expanded resources, cleaner environment.”
Paul Ehrlich (1932–2026) is dead; Julian Simon (1932–1998) lives.