“The academic community is vastly overbuilt. And perhaps no area more than the climate intelligentsia. It is ‘publish or perish’, with anti-fossil-fuel research being the narrative of the day.”
Working from false assumptions has sunk a million intellectual ships. One example is an article in Science by Emily Grubert and Joshua Lappen, Fossil Energy Minimum Viable Scale (2026). As summarized by Renée LaReau, also with the University of Notre Dame:
As the world shifts toward renewable energy sources, some experts warn that a lack of planning for the retirement of fossil fuels could lead to a disorderly and dangerous collapse of existing systems that could prolong the transition to green energy….
The researchers introduced the concept of “minimum viable scale,” a threshold of production below which a fossil fuel system can no longer function safely or economically. They provided examples of vulnerabilities in three major sectors [refining, natural gas transmission, and coal mining].
Unseen infrastructural threats to safety and decarbonization may arise as fossil energy systems are phased out
How strange is this? Are the authors blind to the operations of the world energy market where oil, natural gas, and coal continue their multi-century ascent, setting new records each year?
The stranded assets are not fossil fuels, which are consumer-driven with inherent advantages of energy density (the sun’s work over the ages, not a dilute, intermittent flow). The real “stranded assets” in evidence today are
There is more to come with onshore industrial wind and industrial solar (some of it has begun). Let the PTC, the ITC, and IRA expire without a quick renewal.
Yes, the “energy transition” is going backwards in the U.S., accounting for one-fourth of the world economy. Without subsidies, the crony rent-seeking political-capitalist game is over. Without the historic subsidies, there would have never been these industries either. Same for commercial nuclear, another story.
Back to the Science article, one that should have never been written or published. The academic community is vastly overbuilt. And perhaps no area more than the climate intelligentsia. It is ‘publish or perish’, with anti-fossil-fuel research being the narrative of the day.
Here is the abstract of Fossil Energy Minimum Viable Scale, an example of intellectual misdirection.
The nascent global energy transition involves two parallel, mirrored processes: the retirement of existing fossil fuel–based infrastructure, and the widespread deployment of alternatives in its stead. Most energy transition research and policy have focused on the latter process of development, adoption, and buildout. Far less attention has been paid to the challenges and emergent behaviors associated with the decline of legacy fossil energy systems.
We identify a risk of collapses in service availability as specific elements of fossil infrastructures reach what we term “minimum viable scale,” a level of throughput past which existing physical, financial, and managerial infrastructures can no longer effectively operate as expected. We establish a framework of different types of constraint that can impose a minimum viable scale and identify such constraints in several example fossil systems within the US. Evidence of widespread minimum viable scales should motivate a paradigm shift in system and decarbonization planning.
Garbage in, garbage out. And DOA: Dead on Arrival.