Comments on: Response to 'Peak Oil' Critics (the hydrocarbon age is still young: plan accordingly) http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/ A free-market energy blog Fri, 30 Jul 2010 00:52:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Drumbeat: September 1, 2009 : Hawaii Clean Power http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2782 Drumbeat: September 1, 2009 : Hawaii Clean Power Sun, 18 Oct 2009 11:24:50 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2782 [...] Michael Lynch – Response to ‘Peak Oil’ Critics (the hydrocarbon age is still young: plan a... The publication of my op-ed on peak oil in the New York Times brought forth the usual tidal wave of criticism. The Oil Drum went so far as to put up a separate page for comments, and Joseph Romm issued a ‘challenge’ to me to wager on oil prices. (For an executed bet coming due next year, see the appendix below.) Responding to each and every comment, or even the main ones, would be a Herculean (and Sisyphean) task, so I will (here) make some hopefully useful observations. [...] [...] Michael Lynch – Response to ‘Peak Oil’ Critics (the hydrocarbon age is still young: plan a… The publication of my op-ed on peak oil in the New York Times brought forth the usual tidal wave of criticism. The Oil Drum went so far as to put up a separate page for comments, and Joseph Romm issued a ‘challenge’ to me to wager on oil prices. (For an executed bet coming due next year, see the appendix below.) Responding to each and every comment, or even the main ones, would be a Herculean (and Sisyphean) task, so I will (here) make some hopefully useful observations. [...]

]]> By: contraryfarmer http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2781 contraryfarmer Fri, 25 Sep 2009 02:12:30 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2781 Philip Verleger, did you really say this?!?! <i>As regards peak oil, the adherents should be reminded (a) there are no facts about the future, and (b) man’s technological ingenuity will prevent prices from ever rising to sustained levels that are significantly above $60 to $80/bbl.</i> You do realize that statement (b) is a, you know, prediction about the future. LOLZ Philip Verleger, did you really say this?!?!

As regards peak oil, the adherents should be reminded (a) there are no facts about the future, and (b) man’s technological ingenuity will prevent prices from ever rising to sustained levels that are significantly above $60 to $80/bbl.

You do realize that statement (b) is a, you know, prediction about the future.

LOLZ

]]> By: Peak Oil Update - GetRealList http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2241 Peak Oil Update - GetRealList Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:31:16 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2241 [...] Lynch fired back quickly, saying that my article “tops them all” and alleged that I had predicted $500 oil with [...] [...] Lynch fired back quickly, saying that my article “tops them all” and alleged that I had predicted $500 oil with [...]

]]> By: mlynch http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2252 mlynch Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:07:59 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2252 Gee, Will, forgive me for making a comment that isn't substantive but only critical. Oops, that was you, too! Again, if you think my record disqualifies me from commenting, you obviously don't know my record or those of peak oil advocates. Which was one of my original points in the op-ed. Mike Gee, Will, forgive me for making a comment that isn’t substantive but only critical. Oops, that was you, too!
Again, if you think my record disqualifies me from commenting, you obviously don’t know my record or those of peak oil advocates. Which was one of my original points in the op-ed.
Mike

]]> By: FT.com | FT Energy Source | The Source: India’s emissions; Solar from space; Eni http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2256 FT.com | FT Energy Source | The Source: India’s emissions; Solar from space; Eni Thu, 10 Sep 2009 18:50:08 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2256 [...] Lynch responds to critics of his anti-peak oil oped in the NY Times [...] [...] Lynch responds to critics of his anti-peak oil oped in the NY Times [...]

]]> By: Will http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2247 Will Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:13:58 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2247 Having to resort to calling people names, Mr Lynch? It seems a nerve has been struck here. If making uniformed and useless comments is the criteria, I'm afraid you've made so many wrong predictions as to earn the award you wish to assign to others. Andrew, if you take Iranian unaudited data at face value, see Michael for a t-shirt... Having to resort to calling people names, Mr Lynch? It seems a nerve has been struck here. If making uniformed and useless comments is the criteria, I’m afraid you’ve made so many wrong predictions as to earn the award you wish to assign to others.

Andrew, if you take Iranian unaudited data at face value, see Michael for a t-shirt…

]]> By: Tribute to Tiber: “Oil is Found in the Minds of Men” — MasterResource http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2244 Tribute to Tiber: “Oil is Found in the Minds of Men” — MasterResource Wed, 09 Sep 2009 06:01:51 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2244 [...] the (Canadian) National Post, can be read in conjunction with MasterResource posts on "peak oil" here and here. A brief bio of Mr. Foster appears at the end of this [...] [...] the (Canadian) National Post, can be read in conjunction with MasterResource posts on "peak oil" here and here. A brief bio of Mr. Foster appears at the end of this [...]

]]> By: mlynch http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2245 mlynch Sun, 06 Sep 2009 13:28:10 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2245 Ouch. Apparently Nitwitter is not original. Someone sent me a site that sells t-shirts with it. Maybe we should start handing them out. :) Ouch. Apparently Nitwitter is not original. Someone sent me a site that sells t-shirts with it. Maybe we should start handing them out. :)

]]> By: mlynch http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2258 mlynch Sat, 05 Sep 2009 12:44:44 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2258 I'm herewith coining a new term, Nitwitters. This is for people who make brief, uninformed and useless comments, such as 'you're a fraud!'. Historically, we only hear this sort of thing when someone prominent like Pres. Ahmadinejad of Iran says something stupid like denying the Holocaust, but now, the general public can expose large numbers of their comments. Granted, refferreed journals do not always serve the role of allowing debate to go forward (given the time lag), but since many seem to judge a validity of an argument by the numbers who repeat it (oops, I mean, scientific consensus), it is not completely irrelevant. I disagree with McLuhan's comment that 'the medium is the message' but there's no doubt it influences the message. Mike I’m herewith coining a new term, Nitwitters. This is for people who make brief, uninformed and useless comments, such as ‘you’re a fraud!’. Historically, we only hear this sort of thing when someone prominent like Pres. Ahmadinejad of Iran says something stupid like denying the Holocaust, but now, the general public can expose large numbers of their comments.

Granted, refferreed journals do not always serve the role of allowing debate to go forward (given the time lag), but since many seem to judge a validity of an argument by the numbers who repeat it (oops, I mean, scientific consensus), it is not completely irrelevant. I disagree with McLuhan’s comment that ‘the medium is the message’ but there’s no doubt it influences the message.
Mike

]]> By: mlynch http://www.masterresource.org/2009/08/4410/comment-page-1/#comment-2257 mlynch Sat, 05 Sep 2009 12:13:58 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=4410#comment-2257 The charge of cherry-picking is certainly a valid one, since peak oil advocates display similar behavior. The point I'm trying to make is that patterns of investment vary over time, especially with price. (And by the way, the recoverable reserves in Forties have probably tripled.) But the point I'm trying to make is that if you estimate 'rates of decline' for a field that has declined for 20 years, and then it goes flat or up for 6-8 years, then the decline rate will be much lower. Unfortunately, the decline rate question is very difficult because of the lack of transparency. We don't have investment field by field except in a few cases, and everyone, including the IEA has struggled with this issue. Regarding the irrelevance of a single 2 billion barrel field, remember that in the 1990s, non-OPEC production rose sharply and there were few 2 billion barrel fields. More late. The charge of cherry-picking is certainly a valid one, since peak oil advocates display similar behavior. The point I’m trying to make is that patterns of investment vary over time, especially with price. (And by the way, the recoverable reserves in Forties have probably tripled.) But the point I’m trying to make is that if you estimate ‘rates of decline’ for a field that has declined for 20 years, and then it goes flat or up for 6-8 years, then the decline rate will be much lower.
Unfortunately, the decline rate question is very difficult because of the lack of transparency. We don’t have investment field by field except in a few cases, and everyone, including the IEA has struggled with this issue.
Regarding the irrelevance of a single 2 billion barrel field, remember that in the 1990s, non-OPEC production rose sharply and there were few 2 billion barrel fields.
More late.

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