Comments on: The Intellectual Roots of Paul Ehrlich's The Population Bomb (and the pre-prehistory of climate alarmism) http://www.masterresource.org/2009/07/the-intellectual-roots-of-the-population-bomb-where-did-global-warming-exaggeration-intellectually-start/ A free-market energy blog Sat, 11 Feb 2012 20:41:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: David Coutts http://www.masterresource.org/2009/07/the-intellectual-roots-of-the-population-bomb-where-did-global-warming-exaggeration-intellectually-start/comment-page-1/#comment-3295 David Coutts Tue, 17 Nov 2009 04:00:16 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=3705#comment-3295 Unfortunately standard Malthusian and Cornucopian arguements are both naive and both wrong. Thomas Robert Malthus, Paul R. Ehlrich and others (the Malthusians) argue that populations grow exponentially (at a constant rate) - they don't, and they never have. Julian Simon, Ronald Bailey and others (the cornucopians) then naively argue that because the Malthusians are naive and wrong (and populations do not grow exponentially) that we can sustain growth indefiinitely. This is also naive and wrong, and a dangerous perversion of the truth. The fact is that populations that actually grow at variable rates grow in comparable timeframes to those theorectical populations that grow at a constant rate. Hence, a population that grows at a rate between 1% and 2% per annum will double roughly somewhere between 35 years (the doubling time for a 2% growth rate) and 70 years (the doubling time for a 1% growth rate). - this is the rule of 70, but for variable rate growth. In short, variable rates of growth are just as unsustainable as constant rates of growth. We can guarentee therefore that the global human population cannot continue to grow on Earth because continued growth at such variable rates would consume the entire planet in a few thousand years. Try it - just keep doubling our population every 35 to 70 years and you'll see what I mean. If we start at 6 billion people you would get 1024 times that many (over 6 trillion people) in just 10 population doublings - somewhere between 350 and 700 years from now. Hence, Julian Simon and all other techno-optimists are dangerously wrong to assert that we can sustain population growth indefinitiely on Earth. We have a scant few centuries of capacity for population doubling at best. Unfortunately standard Malthusian and Cornucopian arguements are both naive and both wrong. Thomas Robert Malthus, Paul R. Ehlrich and others (the Malthusians) argue that populations grow exponentially (at a constant rate) – they don’t, and they never have. Julian Simon, Ronald Bailey and others (the cornucopians) then naively argue that because the Malthusians are naive and wrong (and populations do not grow exponentially) that we can sustain growth indefiinitely. This is also naive and wrong, and a dangerous perversion of the truth.

The fact is that populations that actually grow at variable rates grow in comparable timeframes to those theorectical populations that grow at a constant rate. Hence, a population that grows at a rate between 1% and 2% per annum will double roughly somewhere between 35 years (the doubling time for a 2% growth rate) and 70 years (the doubling time for a 1% growth rate). – this is the rule of 70, but for variable rate growth.

In short, variable rates of growth are just as unsustainable as constant rates of growth. We can guarentee therefore that the global human population cannot continue to grow on Earth because continued growth at such variable rates would consume the entire planet in a few thousand years. Try it – just keep doubling our population every 35 to 70 years and you’ll see what I mean. If we start at 6 billion people you would get 1024 times that many (over 6 trillion people) in just 10 population doublings – somewhere between 350 and 700 years from now.

Hence, Julian Simon and all other techno-optimists are dangerously wrong to assert that we can sustain population growth indefinitiely on Earth.

We have a scant few centuries of capacity for population doubling at best.

]]> By: Beware, the Vaccinators are Coming « Time to Think http://www.masterresource.org/2009/07/the-intellectual-roots-of-the-population-bomb-where-did-global-warming-exaggeration-intellectually-start/comment-page-1/#comment-2005 Beware, the Vaccinators are Coming « Time to Think Fri, 28 Aug 2009 17:10:58 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=3705#comment-2005 [...] As for the question of public health and scientific research, American President Obama´s science advisor is John Holdren, an avowed “Neo-Malthusian”. In a 1977 book, John Holdren advocated “forced abortions, mass sterilization through food and water supply and mandatory bodily implants to prevent pregnancies.” Holdren’s co-authored his book “Ecoscience” with close colleagues Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich. Paul Ehrlich in turn was the author of “The Population Bomb”. [...] [...] As for the question of public health and scientific research, American President Obama´s science advisor is John Holdren, an avowed “Neo-Malthusian”. In a 1977 book, John Holdren advocated “forced abortions, mass sterilization through food and water supply and mandatory bodily implants to prevent pregnancies.” Holdren’s co-authored his book “Ecoscience” with close colleagues Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich. Paul Ehrlich in turn was the author of “The Population Bomb”. [...]

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