Comments on: "Best Science" and the Problem of Land-based Thermometers (Anthony Watts's Surfacestations project) http://www.masterresource.org/2009/05/best-science-and-the-problem-of-land-based-thermometers-anthony-wattss-surfacestations-project/ A free-market energy blog Sat, 11 Feb 2012 20:41:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Henri Suyderhoud http://www.masterresource.org/2009/05/best-science-and-the-problem-of-land-based-thermometers-anthony-wattss-surfacestations-project/comment-page-1/#comment-1606 Henri Suyderhoud Sun, 31 May 2009 17:05:53 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=2632#comment-1606 From all I can read about the connection between temperature measurements and CO2 emissions is that it is not necessarily connected, if at all. And there are sound scientific arguments that the Sun has more to do with temperature behaviors (note the plural) than CO2. I would rather see an effort of accurately watching sea levels, and come to a conclusion that the expected rise is so minimal as to be inconsequential. Unfortunately, even intelligent persons are getting fooled, perhaps because of fear! From all I can read about the connection between temperature measurements and CO2 emissions is that it is not necessarily connected, if at all. And there are sound scientific arguments that the Sun has more to do with temperature behaviors (note the plural) than CO2. I would rather see an effort of accurately watching sea levels, and come to a conclusion that the expected rise is so minimal as to be inconsequential. Unfortunately, even intelligent persons are getting fooled, perhaps because of fear!

]]> By: rbradley http://www.masterresource.org/2009/05/best-science-and-the-problem-of-land-based-thermometers-anthony-wattss-surfacestations-project/comment-page-1/#comment-1603 rbradley Fri, 29 May 2009 02:56:46 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=2632#comment-1603 I just found that at Climate Science by Rogr Pielke Sr.: http://climatesci.org/2009/05/27/brief-overview-of-several-climate-science-research-findings/ "conservative estimate of the warm bias resulting from measuring the temperature near the ground is around 0.21°C per decade (with the nighttime minimum temperature contributing a large part of this bias). Since land covers about 29% of the Earth’s surface, the warm bias due to just this one effect explains about 30% of the IPCC estimate of global warming. In other words, consideration of this one bias in temperature would reduce the IPCC trend to about 0.14°C per decade; still a warming, but not as large as indicated by the IPCC. [based on Lin, X., R.A. Pielke Sr., K.G. Hubbard, K.C. Crawford, M. A. Shafer, and T. Matsui, 2007: An examination of 1997-2007 surface layer temperature trends at two heights in Oklahoma. Geophys. Res. Letts., 34, L24705, doi:10.1029/2007GL031652; Klotzbach, P.J., R.A. Pielke Sr., R.A. Pielke Jr., and J.R. Christy, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., submitted.] - for other uncertainties and biases in the monitoring of multi-decadal global average surface temperature trends; see)." I just found that at Climate Science by Rogr Pielke Sr.: http://climatesci.org/2009/05/27/brief-overview-of-several-climate-science-research-findings/

“conservative estimate of the warm bias resulting from measuring the temperature near the ground is around 0.21°C per decade (with the nighttime minimum temperature contributing a large part of this bias). Since land covers about 29% of the Earth’s surface, the warm bias due to just this one effect explains about 30% of the IPCC estimate of global warming. In other words, consideration of this one bias in temperature would reduce the IPCC trend to about 0.14°C per decade; still a warming, but not as large as indicated by the IPCC. [based on Lin, X., R.A. Pielke Sr., K.G. Hubbard, K.C. Crawford, M. A. Shafer, and T. Matsui, 2007: An examination of 1997-2007 surface layer temperature trends at two heights in Oklahoma. Geophys. Res. Letts., 34, L24705, doi:10.1029/2007GL031652; Klotzbach, P.J., R.A. Pielke Sr., R.A. Pielke Jr., and J.R. Christy, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., submitted.] – for other uncertainties and biases in the monitoring of multi-decadal global average surface temperature trends; see).”

]]> By: Andrew http://www.masterresource.org/2009/05/best-science-and-the-problem-of-land-based-thermometers-anthony-wattss-surfacestations-project/comment-page-1/#comment-1605 Andrew Fri, 22 May 2009 14:22:33 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=2632#comment-1605 Siting is not the only issue with the land data, of course, and a good overview of many of the issues is: Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K. Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K. Gallo, R. Hale, R. Mahmood, S. Foster, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2007: Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2006JD008229. They do not address (and unfortunately, few seem to be interested in addressing) the equally important issues with the dubious Sea Surface Temperature measures, which rely on inhomogeneous and sparse data. If only we could survey the historical use of different SST measuring techniques (Buckets, etc.) Siting is not the only issue with the land data, of course, and a good overview of many of the issues is:

Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K. Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K. Gallo, R. Hale, R. Mahmood, S. Foster, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2007: Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2006JD008229.

They do not address (and unfortunately, few seem to be interested in addressing) the equally important issues with the dubious Sea Surface Temperature measures, which rely on inhomogeneous and sparse data. If only we could survey the historical use of different SST measuring techniques (Buckets, etc.)

]]> By: Ed Reid http://www.masterresource.org/2009/05/best-science-and-the-problem-of-land-based-thermometers-anthony-wattss-surfacestations-project/comment-page-1/#comment-1604 Ed Reid Fri, 22 May 2009 12:05:02 +0000 http://masterresource.org/?p=2632#comment-1604 This assessment is generous to a fault. I admire your restraint. Collecting temperature measurements from sites prone to average errors greater than 2 C, as Watts documents, and reporting temperatures and temperature anomalies to two decimal place "accuracy" is more necromancy than science. We would be wise to spend a few $ millions on accurate temperature measurement before committing to spend ~$30 trillion (US only) trying to solve a potentially non-existent or relatively trivial "problem", which we are incapable of solving on our own anyway. This assessment is generous to a fault. I admire your restraint.

Collecting temperature measurements from sites prone to average errors greater than 2 C, as Watts documents, and reporting temperatures and temperature anomalies to two decimal place “accuracy” is more necromancy than science.

We would be wise to spend a few $ millions on accurate temperature measurement before committing to spend ~$30 trillion (US only) trying to solve a potentially non-existent or relatively trivial “problem”, which we are incapable of solving on our own anyway.

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