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	<title>Comments on: Martin Weitzman&#039;s Dismal Theorem: Do &quot;Fat Tails&quot; Destroy Cost-Benefit Analysis?</title>
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	<link>http://www.masterresource.org/2009/02/martin-weitzmans-dismal-theorem-do-fat-tails-destroy-cost-benefit-analysis/</link>
	<description>A free-market energy blog</description>
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		<title>By: stickman</title>
		<link>http://www.masterresource.org/2009/02/martin-weitzmans-dismal-theorem-do-fat-tails-destroy-cost-benefit-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-12421</link>
		<dc:creator>stickman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Aug 2010 17:25:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://masterresource.org/?p=536#comment-12421</guid>
		<description>Has anyone read Weitzman&#039;s response to the Nordhaus critique? I&#039;m uncertain as to whether he published it, but a working paper version can be found here:
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/ReactionsCritique.pdf

To give you an idea (p. 15):

&#039;Nordhaus states that there are so many low-probability catastrophic-impact scenarios around that &quot;?if we accept the Dismal Theorem, we would probably dissolve in a sea of anxiety at the prospect of the infinity of in?finitely bad outcomes.&quot;? This is rhetorical excess and, more to the point here, it is not convincing. In my article I listed what I consider to be the half-dozen or so serious contenders with climate change for potentially catastrophic impacts with non-negligible probabilities[...] ?and went on to give a few tentative reasons why I think that climate change is especially worrisome. It may well be that each of the other half-dozen or so serious candidates for fat-tailed disasters deserves its own ballpark estimates of tail probabilities along with extremely crude calculations of policy implications, which is about the best we can do with potential catastrophes. Even if this were true, however, it would not lessen the need to reckon with the strong potential implications of DT for CBA-like calculations in the particular case of climate change. The fl?aw in Nordhaus?s position here is in his trying to argue his case via guilt by association.&#039;

Anyway, some food for thought on both accounts...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Has anyone read Weitzman&#8217;s response to the Nordhaus critique? I&#8217;m uncertain as to whether he published it, but a working paper version can be found here:<br />
<a href="http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/ReactionsCritique.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/ReactionsCritique.pdf</a></p>
<p>To give you an idea (p. 15):</p>
<p>&#8216;Nordhaus states that there are so many low-probability catastrophic-impact scenarios around that &#8220;?if we accept the Dismal Theorem, we would probably dissolve in a sea of anxiety at the prospect of the infinity of in?finitely bad outcomes.&#8221;? This is rhetorical excess and, more to the point here, it is not convincing. In my article I listed what I consider to be the half-dozen or so serious contenders with climate change for potentially catastrophic impacts with non-negligible probabilities[...] ?and went on to give a few tentative reasons why I think that climate change is especially worrisome. It may well be that each of the other half-dozen or so serious candidates for fat-tailed disasters deserves its own ballpark estimates of tail probabilities along with extremely crude calculations of policy implications, which is about the best we can do with potential catastrophes. Even if this were true, however, it would not lessen the need to reckon with the strong potential implications of DT for CBA-like calculations in the particular case of climate change. The fl?aw in Nordhaus?s position here is in his trying to argue his case via guilt by association.&#8217;</p>
<p>Anyway, some food for thought on both accounts&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Freaking Out over Global Warming &#124; Rights To Freedom</title>
		<link>http://www.masterresource.org/2009/02/martin-weitzmans-dismal-theorem-do-fat-tails-destroy-cost-benefit-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-3207</link>
		<dc:creator>Freaking Out over Global Warming &#124; Rights To Freedom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Nov 2009 09:05:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://masterresource.org/?p=536#comment-3207</guid>
		<description>[...] opposite of what Weitzman has done. The issues are too technical for a full discussion here, but elsewhere I have explained that Weitzman is one of the interventionists&#8217; heroes on the issue of climate [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] opposite of what Weitzman has done. The issues are too technical for a full discussion here, but elsewhere I have explained that Weitzman is one of the interventionists&#8217; heroes on the issue of climate [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Climate Economics 101 and Policy Activism &#8212; MasterResource</title>
		<link>http://www.masterresource.org/2009/02/martin-weitzmans-dismal-theorem-do-fat-tails-destroy-cost-benefit-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-337</link>
		<dc:creator>Climate Economics 101 and Policy Activism &#8212; MasterResource</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2009 01:05:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://masterresource.org/?p=536#comment-337</guid>
		<description>[...] of uncertainty, or how they handle small-probability worst case scenarios. Martin Weitzman is the leader in this assault. Weitzman argues that the orthodox approach of people like William Nordhaus neglects the small [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] of uncertainty, or how they handle small-probability worst case scenarios. Martin Weitzman is the leader in this assault. Weitzman argues that the orthodox approach of people like William Nordhaus neglects the small [...]</p>
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		<title>By: TokyoTom</title>
		<link>http://www.masterresource.org/2009/02/martin-weitzmans-dismal-theorem-do-fat-tails-destroy-cost-benefit-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-336</link>
		<dc:creator>TokyoTom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2009 03:24:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://masterresource.org/?p=536#comment-336</guid>
		<description>Bob, while you&#039;re shoring up &quot;cost-benefit analysis&quot; - the tool of states and bureaucrats everywehere - perhaps you may care to address the point that, under traditional libertarian analysis, if anyone can demonstrate that others&#039; GHG emissions negatively affect his property (by altering temperatures, rainfall or causing flooding), he has the right to enjoin ALL such activities (and is not compelled to suffer them, subject to whatever compensation he can collect)?

Perhaps the &quot;excitableness&quot; of the &quot;alarmists&quot; may have something to do with the problems of collective action and public choice - viz., in circumstances where pollution laws and regulations provide effective &quot;rights to pollute&quot;, and where emissions are worldwide, how does one deal with existing rent-seekers and move the state, and do it in a meaningful way?  There are plenty of private initiatives underway, and even though Austrians dissaprove of efforts to use the state, surely they can understand calls to group action, and that many of the &quot;alarmists&quot; sincerely believe that a fight over the wheel of government is inescapable.

Fundamental Austrian analysis straigthforwardly discussed the problems of conflicting preferences in the absence of property rights and where states are involved, but your lack of understanding or sympathy is rather striking. Why you think it helpful to label one side - a huge swath of people and organizations including Exxon and the Catholic Church - as &quot;alarmists&quot; while ignoring not only the institutional problem but those who profit from the status quo is rather beyond me.

Also, why so little interest in exploring policy options that you would support, like allowing immediate depreciation of capital investment and further public utility deregulation?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bob, while you&#8217;re shoring up &#8220;cost-benefit analysis&#8221; &#8211; the tool of states and bureaucrats everywehere &#8211; perhaps you may care to address the point that, under traditional libertarian analysis, if anyone can demonstrate that others&#8217; GHG emissions negatively affect his property (by altering temperatures, rainfall or causing flooding), he has the right to enjoin ALL such activities (and is not compelled to suffer them, subject to whatever compensation he can collect)?</p>
<p>Perhaps the &#8220;excitableness&#8221; of the &#8220;alarmists&#8221; may have something to do with the problems of collective action and public choice &#8211; viz., in circumstances where pollution laws and regulations provide effective &#8220;rights to pollute&#8221;, and where emissions are worldwide, how does one deal with existing rent-seekers and move the state, and do it in a meaningful way?  There are plenty of private initiatives underway, and even though Austrians dissaprove of efforts to use the state, surely they can understand calls to group action, and that many of the &#8220;alarmists&#8221; sincerely believe that a fight over the wheel of government is inescapable.</p>
<p>Fundamental Austrian analysis straigthforwardly discussed the problems of conflicting preferences in the absence of property rights and where states are involved, but your lack of understanding or sympathy is rather striking. Why you think it helpful to label one side &#8211; a huge swath of people and organizations including Exxon and the Catholic Church &#8211; as &#8220;alarmists&#8221; while ignoring not only the institutional problem but those who profit from the status quo is rather beyond me.</p>
<p>Also, why so little interest in exploring policy options that you would support, like allowing immediate depreciation of capital investment and further public utility deregulation?</p>
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		<title>By: TokyoTom</title>
		<link>http://www.masterresource.org/2009/02/martin-weitzmans-dismal-theorem-do-fat-tails-destroy-cost-benefit-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-335</link>
		<dc:creator>TokyoTom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Feb 2009 11:22:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://masterresource.org/?p=536#comment-335</guid>
		<description>Bob, while you&#039;re busy shoring up &quot;cost-benefit analysis&quot; - the tool of states and bureaucrats everywehere - perhaps you may care to address the point that, under traditional libertarian analysis, if anyone can demonstrate that others&#039; GHG emissions negatively affect his property (by altering temperatures, rainfall or causing flooding), he has the right to enjoin ALL such activities (and is not compelled to suffer them, subject to whatever compensation he can collect)?

Perhaps the &quot;excitableness&quot; of the &quot;alarmists&quot; may have something to do with the problems of collective action and public choice - viz., in circumstances where pollution laws and regulations provide effective &quot;rights to pollute&quot;, and where emissions are worldwide, how does one deal with existing rent-seekers and move the state, and do it in a meaningful way?

Fundamental Austrian analysis straigthforwardly discussed the problems of conflicting preferences in the absence of property rights and where states are involved, but your lack of understanding or sympathy is rather striking. Why you think it helpful to label one side - a huge swath of people and organizations including Exxon and the Catholic Church - as &quot;alarmists&quot; while ignoring not only the institutional problem but those who profit from the status quo is rather beyond me.

P.S.:  I addressed some of the libertarian aspects of climate change in this post regarding Jim Manzi&#039;s similar review at Cato of Weitzman:  http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/default.aspx</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bob, while you&#8217;re busy shoring up &#8220;cost-benefit analysis&#8221; &#8211; the tool of states and bureaucrats everywehere &#8211; perhaps you may care to address the point that, under traditional libertarian analysis, if anyone can demonstrate that others&#8217; GHG emissions negatively affect his property (by altering temperatures, rainfall or causing flooding), he has the right to enjoin ALL such activities (and is not compelled to suffer them, subject to whatever compensation he can collect)?</p>
<p>Perhaps the &#8220;excitableness&#8221; of the &#8220;alarmists&#8221; may have something to do with the problems of collective action and public choice &#8211; viz., in circumstances where pollution laws and regulations provide effective &#8220;rights to pollute&#8221;, and where emissions are worldwide, how does one deal with existing rent-seekers and move the state, and do it in a meaningful way?</p>
<p>Fundamental Austrian analysis straigthforwardly discussed the problems of conflicting preferences in the absence of property rights and where states are involved, but your lack of understanding or sympathy is rather striking. Why you think it helpful to label one side &#8211; a huge swath of people and organizations including Exxon and the Catholic Church &#8211; as &#8220;alarmists&#8221; while ignoring not only the institutional problem but those who profit from the status quo is rather beyond me.</p>
<p>P.S.:  I addressed some of the libertarian aspects of climate change in this post regarding Jim Manzi&#8217;s similar review at Cato of Weitzman:  <a href="http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/default.aspx" rel="nofollow">http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/default.aspx</a></p>
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		<title>By: Roger Koppl</title>
		<link>http://www.masterresource.org/2009/02/martin-weitzmans-dismal-theorem-do-fat-tails-destroy-cost-benefit-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-334</link>
		<dc:creator>Roger Koppl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Feb 2009 15:51:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://masterresource.org/?p=536#comment-334</guid>
		<description>Nice!  Thanks for that post, Bob.  How do you square Nordhaus&#039;s CBA with &quot;Austrian&quot; (or computable economics) arguments about complexity and the difficulty of prediction?  Why shouldn&#039;t we chastise Nordhaus for hubris?  The pretense of knowledge and all that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice!  Thanks for that post, Bob.  How do you square Nordhaus&#8217;s CBA with &#8220;Austrian&#8221; (or computable economics) arguments about complexity and the difficulty of prediction?  Why shouldn&#8217;t we chastise Nordhaus for hubris?  The pretense of knowledge and all that.</p>
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